Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis

You can’t fix what you don’t understand — and when it comes to crime, the public’s been fed a steady diet of half-truths and cooked stats.

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That’s what Dr. John Lott, founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center, unpacked on Politics By Faith with Mike Slater, cutting straight through the noise about America’s so-called “crime decline.”

Lott explained how cities like Manhattan, Chicago, and Philadelphia are playing word games with the data — downgrading violent felonies into misdemeanors so the FBI numbers look cleaner than the streets actually are.

He gave the perfect example: an aggravated assault (a felony) can become a simple assault (a misdemeanor) the second prosecutors decide not to charge for weapon involvement.

“When prosecutors refuse to take firearms cases and pressure police not to record weapons used, the data starts lying,” Lott said. “Crimes don’t disappear — they just vanish from the spreadsheets.”

According to Lott, only 40% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes are reported to police — and that’s shrinking fast because people no longer believe justice will be served.

When only 20% of reported violent crimes in big cities result in an arrest — and just 8% if you count all violent crimes — people stop calling the cops. That’s how you get headlines claiming “crime is down,” when what’s really dropping is public trust.

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Even worse, the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows a 55% surge in violent crime during the first three years of the Biden administration — the biggest three-year jump since federal tracking began. The previous record? A 27% rise back in 2006.

“So when NPR runs with ‘violent crime is falling,’ they’re just parroting the wrong dataset,” Lott said.

Lott broke it down like an economist: “If you make something riskier for criminals, they’ll do less of it.” Raise arrest rates. Enforce convictions. Keep repeat offenders off the street.

He pointed to cases like a South Carolina man arrested 39 times — 25 for violent felonies — who still managed to walk free long enough to kill again. Or the Charlotte train stabbing, where a repeat offender released early for “racial equity” murdered a 21-year-old woman just months after getting out.

That’s not reform — that’s neglect.

“Criminal justice ‘equity’ sounds noble,” Lott said, “but when 90% of black murder victims are killed by black offenders, who exactly are you helping by refusing to punish repeat violent criminals?”

In D.C., 96% of murder victims are black. During one stretch of federal intervention under Trump, murders virtually stopped for weeks.

“Whose lives do you think were saved?” Lott asked.

Lott’s message was simple: crime policy should be about saving lives, not saving narratives. And pretending violence doesn’t exist just because it’s underreported or redefined doesn’t make anyone safer.

“Deterrence works. Enforcement works. And data only helps if you’re honest about it,” Lott said.

For more hard numbers — not headlines — visit crimeresearch.org.

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