Is Media Underreporting How Many Americans Own Black Rifles?

By Larry Keane

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Law-abiding citizens in the Commonwealth of Virginia are facing an onslaught of strict gun control proposals now that antigun politicians control the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the Assembly. One of those proposals, led by Democrat House of Delegates Rep. Dan Helmer, would ban the manufacture, sale and possession of Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) — or the AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles that have become ubiquitous among law-abiding gun owners.

WHSV 3 News reported on the bill. “If passed, the proposal would prohibit the manufacture, sale, import, purchase and transfer of many semi-automatic rifles, pistols and shotguns that meet its newly expanded definition of ‘assault firearms.’ This definition is based on features such as pistol grips, threaded barrels, adjustable stocks and detachable magazines,” the news channel reported.

Virginia’s not alone. Other antigun state legislatures are proposing bans on so-called “assault weapons” too, but as media continues to cover these bills, are they purposefully low-balling just how extremely popular, and commonly owned, they’ve become? Simple internet searches seem to show the answer is “yes.”

If you ran a simple Google search of “how many Americans own AR-15s?”, the results would be woefully lacking. The Google AI tool gives an immediate answer of “approximately 16 million to 24.6 million” Americans who own an AR-15 or similarly styled semiautomatic rifle. Google’s high-end estimate is more than 20 percent off from the most current industry estimates.

The top articles referenced and provided as citation are all far out-of-date. The top article provided, from Georgetown University, is a republish of The Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard writing about AR-15 popularity — from 2022 — also pegged at 24 million.

The second-highest-placed article  — from Stephen Gutowski’s The Reload — is also from 2022 and puts MSR ownership at 24.4 million.

Next is a Washington Post article from 2023, suggesting there are only “20 million AR-15s in circulation.”

NBC News included the figure 24.4 million as well in 2020 in an article titled, “What makes the AR-15 so beloved and so reviled.”

All these publications could use a refresh on their research if they’re going to cover the popularity of the MSR and state legislation being proposed to ban their possession, use and sale.

NSSF recently released its “2025 Firearm Production in the United States” report that includes firearm import and export data as well. The report includes the most recent figures gathered from industry manufacturers that is up-to-date as of 2023 production. The report compiles the most current and accurate information available based on data sourced from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ (ATF’s) Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Export Reports (AFMER).

So what’s the current total number on MSRs? It’s a big number – significantly higher than what mainstream media continues to report.

All told, industry data reveals that 32,091,000 Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) are in circulation since 1990. While MSR production slowed down slightly between 2022 to 2023, coming off scorching hot sales during COVID and the early Biden administration, the estimated total amount of MSRs produced since 1990 increased by 4.5 percent, bringing the total to 32 million from 30.7 million.

Media outlets covering firearm-related legislative proposals in Virginia, New Mexico and elsewhere need to include the most current figures to give readers a clearer understanding that these lawful rifles are commonly owned and popular for use for a variety of lawful reasons, including recreational target shooting, hunting, varmint control and home defense.

When the U.S. Supreme Court handed down its Heller decision in 2008, the Court stated that that entire classes of commonly owned firearms cannot be banned from legal sale and possession by law-abiding citizens. In the 5-4 decision, the Court held, “Private citizens have the right under the Second Amendment to possess an ordinary type of weapon and use it for lawful, historically established situations such as self-defense in a home, even when there is no relationship to a local militia.”

“Commonly owned,” “typically possessed” and “ordinary” are key words here.

MSRs are the most popular selling centerfire rifle in America and solidly more common than Ford F-150s on the road today (the most popular selling pickup truck in America).

As Virginians listen to Delegate Helmer and his gun control allies attempt to use scare tactics to force through an AR-15 ban to be signed by Virginia’s Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, they should also remember the words of U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who in a 2024 congressional hearing described MSRs as “one of the most popular semiautomatic weapons in the United States,” and even Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who in her 2024 Cargill dissent described AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles as “commonly available, semiautomatic rifles.”

Shelby Baird Smith, NSSF’s Chief Litigation Counsel, pointed out in a blog that the Supreme Court unanimously affirmed this in the 2025 Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., et al. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos decision.

“What is more, the Supreme Court’s ruling likewise handed the industry another subtle win in relation to challenges to hardware bans,” Smith wrote. “The Smith & Wesson decision shows that all nine justices agree with the statement that AR-15s are ‘widely legal and bought by many ordinary citizens’ and are ‘the most popular rifle in the country.’”

32 million is a big, big number. Journalists reporting on gun control proposals in the states or in Washington, D.C., should recognize just how commonly owned these firearms are and that precedent demonstrates entire classes of commonly owned firearms cannot be banned. Truthfully reporting to readers and audiences just how popular they are is critical to ensure Second Amendment rights are not infringed by gun control activists using scare tactics and lies.

Larry Keane is Senior Vice President of Government and Public Affairs and General Counsel for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the firearms industry trade association.

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