The 50-50 split in the Senate all depends on Manchin, but he is largely into symbolism about being a moderate. When his vote makes a difference he always votes with his party. Manchin makes all sorts of noises about wanting the Keystone XL pipeline built, but when he actually can force it to be done, he backs down.
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“Manchin, alongside fellow Dem Sen. Jon Tester, MT, joined Republicans in a budget resolution supporting the pipeline. But they later voted for an amendment from Chuck Schumer, D-NY, to kill that resolution”
Senate Dems approved a budget resolution that will allow them to pass coronavirus relief without GOP support.. Despite Sen. Joe Manchin making noises about demanding a bipartisan bill (“Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he wants Biden’s agenda to pass with Republican support“), he NEVER goes against his party when he would be the decisive vote.
When the vote came up for Kavanaugh, Manchin waited until Collins had already come out for Kavanaugh and his confirmation would already go through. Manchin would never be the decisive vote against what his party wants.
“It now appears that there will be 51 votes in favor of Kavanaugh, because Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia came out minutes after her [Collins’] speech in favor of the nominee, the only Senate Democrat to back Trump’s pick.”